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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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