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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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