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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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