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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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