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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
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