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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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