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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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