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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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