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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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