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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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