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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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