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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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