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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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