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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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