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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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