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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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