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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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