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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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