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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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