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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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