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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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