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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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