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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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