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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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