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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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