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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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