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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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