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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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