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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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