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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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