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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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