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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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