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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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