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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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