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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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