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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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