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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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