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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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