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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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