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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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