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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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