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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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