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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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