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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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