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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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