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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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