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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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