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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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