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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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