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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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